Property update – March 2021
Momentum builds across Australian housing markets as values rise at the fastest rate in seventeen years.
Australian home values surged 2.1% higher in February; the largest month-on-month change in CoreLogic’s national home value index since August 2003.
Spurred on by a combination of record low mortgage rates, improving economic conditions, government incentives and low advertised supply levels, Australia’s housing market is in the midst of a broad-based boom.
According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, a synchronised growth phase like this hasn’t been seen in Australia for more than a decade. “The last time we saw a sustained period where every capital city and rest of state region was rising in value was mid-2009 through to early 2010, as post-GFC stimulus fueled buyer demand.”
Sydney and Melbourne were among the strongest performing markets, recording a 2.5% and 2.1% lift in home values over the month respectively, as Australia’s two largest cities caught up from weaker performance through 2020. The quarterly trend however, is still favouring the smaller cities; Darwin housing values rose 5.5% over the past three months, Hobart values rose 4.8% and Perth was up 4.2%.
Regional markets (up +2.1% over the month) have continued to show a higher rate of capital gain relative to the capital cities (up +2.0%), however the performance gap has narrowed compared with the earlier phase of the growth cycle.
One of the factors driving housing prices higher is low advertised supply levels. CoreLogic’s most recent measure of total listing numbers continues to see advertised supply significantly below that of recent years. The number of properties advertised for sale nationally remained 26.2% below 2020 levels over the 28 days ending February 21.
Whilst available supply remains at historically low levels, the quarterly number of home sales is estimated to be up 35.3% on 2020 levels, with regional dwelling sales 40.6% higher compared with a 32.0% lift in capital city sales.
Mr Lawless believes the mismatch between supply and demand is a central factor pushing prices higher. “Housing inventory is around record lows for this time of the year and buyer demand is well above average. These conditions favour sellers. Buyers are likely confronting a sense of FOMO which limits their ability to negotiate. Vendor discounting rates were estimated at a record low of 2.6% in February, and auction clearance rates have consistently been in the high 70% to low 80%, which is well above average.”
New listing numbers could see a more substantial lift in March, with CoreLogic’s real estate platform data indicating agents are becoming more active. “Although new listings are likely to track higher over coming months, if buyer demand continues to lift it’s likely overall advertised stock levels will remain low,” Mr Lawless said. “Serious buyers would be well advised to have their financing preapproved and be ready to act fast in order to secure a property under such tight supply conditions.”
